Belarus: Lukashenka courts Tehran
Despite the controversy surrounding Belarus' recent presidential poll, there are even more serious concerns over the murky activities of a regime dubbed by Washington as Europe's last dictatorship. A JID special investigator is currently probing the covert links between Minsk and Tehran.
It is no secret that both Belarus and Ukraine have previously exported sensitive technology to 'rogue' states, although such transactions have often involved a murky network of dealers designed to throw Western investigators off the scent. One example was revealed in early 2005, following the so-called Orange Revolution, when Ukraine's prosecutor general said that Russian-designed supersonic cruise missiles may have been sold to Iran and China while former president Leonid Kuchma was in office.
A recent JID probe has indicated that Belarus may be preparing to export sensitive Russian military technology to Iran. Since early 2005, Minsk has been negotiating with Moscow for the purchase of the latest and most advanced version of the S-300SP surface-to-air missile system. According to well-informed sources, a contract for an unspecified number of S-300SP missiles was signed between Minsk and the Kremlin during the summer of 2005, with delivery scheduled to take place either later that year or else in early 2006.
However, few military analysts believe that Belarus has any requirement for the S-300SP, since despite mounting international pressure on Lukashenka in the aftermath of his controversial election 'victory', no one is seriously planning to attack Europe's 'last dictatorship' from the air. This raises the key question of why the Lukashenka regime is prepared to purchase missiles from Russia.
Our investigations suggest that the real reason for Belarus' deal with the Kremlin may lie several thousand kilometres to the southwest. In
January a high-level military and political delegation from Tehran paid a low-key visit to Minsk.
According to well-informed JID sources, the main reason for the visit was to make arrangements for the future transfer of the S-300SP SAMs from Belarus in order to help the embattled Iranian regime bolster its defences against possible US or Israeli air strikes designed to de-rail its efforts to develop nuclear weapons.
Since at least 2005, the Iranian authorities have been working overtime to reinforce the country's nuclear research facilities. This programme includes the construction of vast underground networks of tunnels and highly reinforced laboratories designed to safeguard the Islamic Republic's nuclear activities from possible air strikes. Since it currently lacks a strong air force, Iran also requires a formidable surface-to-air missile capability in order to strengthen its air defence umbrella as a deterrent to any future attack from either Washington or Israel.
Moscow's manoeuvres
While the Kremlin remains a major supplier of nuclear technology for Iran's nuclear programme, President Vladimir Putin would face serious problems if he had to explain to the rest of the world how the Islamic Republic had acquired the most recent generation of S-300PSs. For this reason, Belarus and its increasingly isolated regime could provide an alternative supply route and one that would offer Moscow the cover of 'plausible deniability'once the missile transfer has been effected.
Belarus has earned a reputation as a well-documented route for the supply of weapons and other military equipment to a variety of countries under international arms embargos in Africa and Asia. Despite this, the West has done precious little, save waging a war of words in the form of diplomatic pressure in an unsuccessful bid to force Minsk to change its ways.
However, it was not until 10 April that the EU finally banned Lukashenka and his top officials from entering its member states following his re-election on 19 March and the brutal crackdown against the opposition.
With patience wearing thin in Washington and the EU, Belarus may be taking a high-risk gamble with its contacts with Iran. Any evidence of missile deals with Tehran will be scrutinised intensely, while Putin, the country's only real ally, will be put under increasing diplomatic pressure to block any move to supply Minsk with S-300PSs.
Belarus is also very active in trading Russian crude oil. Unlike Russia itself, Belarus boasts two modern refinery facilities located in Mazyr and Novopolotsk. These are considered to be the most modern refineries in the former Soviet republics. Belarus refines Russian crude oil into petroleum and a variety of other derivatives, the majority of which are then sold on the Dutch stock exchange. This trade is considered to be the country's most important export to the West and a most lucrative source of hard currency income for the regime in Minsk.
It remains to be seen whether the West is serious about putting real pressure on Lukashenka and his inner circle. Apart from the EU visa ban, there has been some tough talk from Brussels about freezing Lukashenka's assets held in EU bank accounts. Such a move would appear to be the only means short of a full economic embargo to put pressure on the leadership in Minsk. However, unless the Kremlin withdraws its support for Lukashenka, the prospects for democratic reform seem bleak.
