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А.Никольский
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28.11.2008 19:26:12
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Политек;
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Re: Уважаемые коллеги!...
Приветствую Вас!
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Can Russia maintain its defence export growth?
Russia is looking to a fourth year of record arms exports but leaner times may lie ahead as big customers turn elsewhere, report Vladimir Petrov and Guy Anderson
Russia expects to hit a new export sales record in 2008 with foreign sales of defence materiel of USD8 billion: USD1.9 billion more than the amount forecast in September last year.
"The Russian government set the goal of raising arms exports to USD8 billion in 2008 and we hope to reach or even exceed this goal by the end of the current year," Konstantin Biryulin, deputy head of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Co-operation, told Russian media in late October.
Such a figure would mark the fourth consecutive year of record results. Russia exported materiel valued at USD7.4 billion, USD6.5 billion and USD6.1 billion in 2007, 2006 and 2005 respectively.
India was the largest single market in 2007, according to figures from Jane's and the Russian Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, with a 28 per cent share of Russia's order book. China accounted for 21 per cent; Venezuela 16 per cent; Algeria 14 per cent; Malaysia 9 per cent; Vietnam 5 per cent; and other markets 7 per cent.
Approaching a downturn
It is Jane's view that Russia will experience an export downturn in around 2010-12 as leading customer demand declines. Longer-term opportunities have been identified, however.
Naval equipment is expected to be a driver of growth in 2008. Sales of such systems accounted for 9 per cent of orders in 2007 (USD600 million).
In 2008 the naval slice of arms exports is expected to be heavier, owing to orders from China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam. African nations are also likely to order a variety of naval platforms, including Project 11541 Korsar frigates, Project 11661 Gepard-3.9 frigates, Project 12418 Molniya missile boats, Project 12061-E Murena-E landing craft air cushion and littoral area monitoring systems.
Biryulin said that aircraft and air-defence systems continue to dominate Russia's arms exports. Rosoboronexport has signed deals to sell six Sukhoi Su-30 'Flanker-C' fighter aircraft and 18 BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) to Indonesia. Nikolai Dimidyuk, Rosoboronexport's special programmes director, announced that Jakarta could also buy Mil Mi-17 and Mi-35 helicopters.
Russia has agreed to provide Venezuela with a USD1 billion loan so that Caracas could acquire Ilyushin Il-78 aerial tankers and Il-76 military cargo aircraft, plus Tor-M1 air-defence systems and Igla-S portable surface-to-air missile systems. It is expected that by the end of the year Venezuela may finalise the procurement of Russian-made BMP-3 IFVs and T-72 main battle tanks (MBTs).
Anatoly Isaikin, chief executive officer of Rosoboronexport, said that in recent years substantial progress has been made in military-technical co-operation with a number of African states. A considerable quantity of weapons will go to Algeria, Angola, Botswana, Ethiopia, Libya, Uganda and Zimbabwe, he said.
For instance, Rosoboronexport is promoting the following air platforms in the African market: Su-30MK, MiG-29 and Su-27SKM multirole fighters; Yak-130 combat trainers; Ka-50 attack helicopters and their variants; Mi-24/35 combat transports and their upgraded versions; Mi-17 transport helicopters; Mi-26 heavy-lift helicopters; Ka-31 airborne early-warning helicopters; Ka-28 shipborne anti-submarine warfare helicopters; Ka-226 and Ansat light utility helicopters; and Il-76MF/MD and An-38 military transport aircraft.
Rosoboronexport will also promote in Africa: T-90S MBTs; BTR-80A armoured personnel carriers; BMP-3 IFVs; MSTA-S self-propelled howitzers; automated artillery fire-control systems; Metis-M and Konkurs-M anti-tank guided missiles; Krasnopol cannon-launched guided projectiles; Grad and Smerch multiple-rocket launcher systems; S-300PMU2 and Buk-M2E air-defence systems; Igla manportable air-defence systems; upgraded Kvadrat, Osa-AKM and S-125 Pechora air-defence systems; ZU-23/ZOM1 anti-aircraft guns, as well as Nebo-SVU, Kasta-2E2 and Podsolnukh radars; modernised P-18 and P-19 radars; and various types of small arms and ammunition, including RShG-1/2 assault rocket launchers.
Looking ahead
Russian export sales have been buoyed in recent years by a combination of significant contract wins in emerging markets in North Africa and South America, as well as the continued contribution of traditional leading customers China and India.
The momentum will almost certainly continue for the remainder of this decade.
Rosoboronexport reported a foreign sales backlog of USD17 billion in mid-2006, representing four years of work. This had climbed to USD24 billion by December 2007.
A dip in export sales beyond 2010-12 is envisaged, however. Moscow has acknowledged that sales to China and India, which accounted for 49 per cent of Russia's total foreign orders in 2007, will subside.
This is largely attributable to New Delhi's desire to open its procurement funds to international competition and Beijing's push for greater levels of technological sophistication. This will leave Russia largely exposed to the volatility and rapid saturation issues associated with smaller developing markets.
Russia's development of a fifth-generation fighter aircraft - led by Sukhoi and expected to hit the export market in around 2020 - will provide new opportunities, however, as will the ultimate requirement of the 40 countries worldwide using Soviet-era land systems to upgrade their inventories.
Vladimir Petrov is a JDW Correspondent based in Moscow; Guy Anderson is Jane's Defence Industry Editor, based in London
С уважением, ID