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А.Никольский
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07.02.2002 16:15:07
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Рубрики
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Локальные конфликты;
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кстати по этому поводу - я вообще не понимаю что происходит
Hi!
амеры сели в Средней Азии с молчаливого согласия Китая и РФ, и "все счастливы"?
вот типа мысли вслух
Geopolitical aspects of Central Asian security issues.
The “multi-vector policy” of region’s states in 1990s has lead to official nonexistence of “potential enemies” for Central Asian states at both global and regional levels. But it doesn’t mean that they do not exist and that there are no potential conflicts, and that the possibility of region’s disintegration having zero chance. In current political conditions there are a lot of threats for Central Asian states not only internally and not from “international terrorism” only.
There are also possible threats of losing independence and sovereignty as a result of past drastic changes in the balance of powers in the region. The events of 2001 autumn and the current situation has considerably affected to the last year’s forming of the alliance of three regional superpowers: Russia, China and India.
There is a great degree of possibility that while the Moscow-Beijing-New Deli axis is being formed, the American presence on the Eurasia territory including Central Asia would be highly confined. In this case the disposition of powers in the region would be more or less clear and the possible ways of development of the Central Asian states would have been more obvious.
At present due to the fact that the United States and Russia have come closer to each other in matters of international terrorism and also due to America's military presence in the region, possible variants of geopolitical disposition in Central Asia in particular and in Eurasia as a whole in accordance with the scenario of a “strategic union between the United States and Russia” is not clear.
Some experts believe that the possible variants could be that a number of Central Asian states – Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan (other possible variants being only Uzbekistan and Tajikistan or just Uzbekistan) move under the protectorate of the United States. With this, reaction of the leaders of these states is no longer obvious as there are many pros and cons. In this variant, Russia gets the role of a dominion over Kazakhstan and also possibly over republic of Kyrgyzia. Under this scenario, Kazakhstan is no longer an independent state but just a southern shield for the Russian Federation. The geopolitical union between the United States and Russia is so suppressing in its might that it is highly unlikely that the other participants of world's re-division will have a vote and will be allowed a strong opinion on such a disposition of powers.
Interestingly enough, before the Sept. 11 events and also before George W. Bush's victory in the presidential elections the official “leaning” of the U.S. administration was absolutely the opposite with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan being regarded by the U.S. State Department as totally autocratic states. Meanwhile the United States was also proclaimed the “guarantor of Kazakhstan independence from Russia”.
There is also another variant or aspect of new geopolitical conditions in the Central Asian region. Many analysts, especially in the West, believe after the defeat of the Taliban in Afghanistan and reinforcement of the American presence in the region it has “become evident” the hegemony in shifting in the favor of the United States. One could agree with this view however with a certain reservation. An illusion with many politicians will not prevail that the United States is capable of becoming an alternative security guarantor comparable to Russia and China in the region. However the possibility of this could prevails today. And not only because generous promises from the United States in terms of investment plans and political support have created a feeling that geopolitical goals of the United States in the region have changed and they have reconsidered their attitude to the current political regimes but also because reinforcing the American military presence in Central Asia also happens with the silent consent of Russia and China while their own relation with the U.S. improves.
The danger of this scenario is also in the fact that the deployment of the U.S. servicemen on the territory of some Central Asian states with a certain reaction from the leaders of the republics is capable of destroying the current disposition of powers along the Moscow-Beijing and Delhi axis and stop functioning of a forming real organization for providing regional stability and security – the Shanghai organization of cooperation.
At present many analysts believe that with the U.S. arrival to Central Eurasia, it led to the “second Eurasian Balkans.” The likelihood of a hypothetical “instability arc” has increased dramatically and with certain stipulation one can already speak about its existence in Central Asia. This could be demonstrated e.g. though ambitions of Tashkent to dominate in the region with the support of the United States getting a real impetus. In this case the matters of territorial disputes and tension in relations between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and also between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzia increase considerably. Another aspect of the “Balkans scenario” is seen in that the alliance between the United States and Russia is of a temporary nature. That means that in a medium-term perspective contradictions between the two powers will grow and Central Asian states that were earlier in the sphere of influence of Russia (real or formal) and some of them have begun shifting towards the United States will be inevitably involved in them. This will in no way improve the complicated and conflicting relations between Central Asian countries.
Cu