От Venik
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Дата 16.01.2002 20:39:46
Рубрики Современность; Локальные конфликты;

Джейнс прорвало - Россия обходит США в Афганистане

Мое почтение!

Обычно спокойная Джейнс в последнее время расшумелось на афганско-чеченскую тему...

Две статьи: "Россия обходит США в Афганистане?" и "Оружие для Чечни и Талибана"

Is Russia outmanoeuvring the USA in Afghanistan?
Glen Howard

TWELVE YEARS after its ignominious retreat from Kabul, Russia has returned to Afghanistan. With US and UK special forces scouring the Afghan countryside in search of Osama Bin Laden, Russian President Vladimir Putin has managed to revive Russia's influence in Afghanistan's political future through its support for the Northern Alliance. Backed by US air power and equipped with Russian arms, the Northern Alliance has obtained a major voice in Afghanistan's interim government as a result of Russian support.

With the Northern Alliance in control of Kabul by late November, Putin orchestrated a major Russian diplomatic victory by becoming the second country (after the UK) to reopen an embassy in the Afghan capital. President Putin revived Russian prominence in the new 'Great Game' by dispatching 12 diplomats to reopen its embassy before the other interested parties, deploying 200 armed Russians from the ministry for emergency situations (MChS) to reconnoitre the city, and organising a major military airlift of relief supplies to the Afghan capital shortly after its seizure by the Northern Alliance.

Putin's geopolitical manoeuvering over Afghanistan began shortly after his acquiescence to the deployment of US military forces to Central Asia in mid-September. At that time Putin formulated a regional strategy for Afghanistan designed to bolster the Northern Alliance so that Moscow's regional partner could widen its base of power and serve as counterweight to Pakistan's regional influence. Aligned with the United States, Putin launched a humanitarian and military aid programme for the Northern Alliance to help it into power. To pursue this goal, Putin assigned close friend and head of the MChS, Sergei Shoigu, to oversee the distribution of Russian humanitarian assistance worth US$500 million to northern Afghanistan.

Putin also assigned the chief of the general staff, Victor Kvashnin, to direct the Kremlin's military assistance to the Northern Alliance. Kvashnin drew up plans for the distribution of over $45 million in Russian military assistance to the Northern Alliance during the month of October. Putin dispatched Kvashnin to the Tajik capital of Dushanbe to organise a meeting with the defence minister of the Northern Alliance, Mohammad Fahim, and his field commanders. Kvashnin (who led the seizure of the Pristina airport in Kosovo in June 1999) was accompanied by Viktor Komogorov, the deputy head of the Federal Security Service (FSB). By mid-October 2001, Alliance forces had received around 40 tanks and 12 military helicopters from former Soviet arms depots in Tajikistan. The arms deal also provided Russian-made T-55 tanks, helicopters, Kalashnikovs, and Igla anti-aircraft missiles.

The epicentre of Russian co-operation with the Northern Alliance is its new military commander, General Mohammad Fahim, who replaced the legendary guerrilla leader Ahmadshah Massoud after his assassination on 9 September 2001. Fahim is a Soviet-trained intelligence officer who maintains close ties to the Russian intelligence services and is believed to be a former member of KHAD, the Soviet-trained Afghan secret police. Fahim tarnished his reputation among many Afghans by serving as a deputy to the former Communist leader Najibullah. Fahim later left the Communist government after the fall of Najibullah in 1992 and joined the insurgent forces led by Massoud.

Fahim has special appeal to Moscow because of his deep hatred of Pakistan. Officials in the Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) believe that Fahim organised the 1996 attack on the Pakistani embassy in Kabul when he served as the chief of security for the Northern Alliance when it ruled the Afghan capital from 1992-1996. The other element of Russian influence in the Afghan government is the Northern Alliance foreign minister, Abdullah Abdullah, who is also believed to have close ties to Moscow. Now serving as the interim foreign minister, Abdullah repeatedly resisted Western efforts to deploy a peacekeeping force to Afghanistan.

By early November, Russian assistance had enabled the Northern Alliance to defeat the Taliban in northern Afghanistan and turn its attention to seizing Kabul, rather than waiting for the USA to organise a handover of the city to a multinational peacekeeping force. Ignoring pledges made to the USA, Northern Alliance forces entered the Afghan capital and staked their claim to ruling the country. This decision appeared to have been inspired by the Alliance's principal military adviser - a certain General Victor Kvashnin.

After the capture of the Afghan capital by the Northern Alliance, President Putin dispatched a fleet of Russian transport aircraft to the Bagram air base on 19 November. Over the next few days, 12 Russian military aircraft (Ilyushin-76s) transported 500 tons of Russian relief supplies to Kabul, including shipments of military communications equipment for General Fahim's forces.

This aid, combined with the unexpected appearance of 200 heavily armed Russians from MChS, resulted in the sudden reopening of the Russian embassy in Kabul. This development, combined with the establishment of a Russian field hospital in downtown Kabul created suspicion over Russian motives. According to one report, the former Spetsnaz unit assault commander Colonel Valerii Vostrotin - who directed the Soviet assassination team that killed Afghanistan's former President Hafizullah Amin during the Soviet invasion in December 1979 - is directing the relief operation in Kabul by the MChS, in which Vostrotin is a deputy minister.

US concern at Russian deployment

The sudden re-emergence of a Russian presence in Kabul caused considerable concern in the US State Department, forcing Secretary of State Colin Powell to call Moscow and complain to Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov about the unexpected deployment of Russian personnel. However, Powell downplayed the arrival of the Russians by stating: "It wouldn't be right to call this a military presence."

Nevertheless, Moscow expanded its diplomatic presence to other parts of the country, dispatching Russian diplomats to Mazar-e Sharif to reopen the Russian consulate there. Russia's diplomatic initiatives were designed to bolster the international legitimacy of President Burhanuddin Rabbani and the Northern Alliance prior to its participation in the UN-brokered meeting in Bonn. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov backed Rabbani's efforts by declaring the Northern Alliance to be the "lawful government of Afghanistan". Moscow's diplomatic gamble later paid off as the Northern Alliance dominated the interim government in Afghanistan, occupying 15 key government positions.

Since the formation of an interim government, Moscow has focused its efforts on aiding the Northern Alliance in its efforts to deepen its basis of support among the local Afghan population. According to the pro-Kremlin website strana.ru, Russia is the only regional power to launch a state programme for providing humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. Also, Russia is planning to beam Russian state television into Afghanistan using a relay transmitter in southern Tajikistan. So far Russian assistance seems to have been primarily directed toward the areas controlled by the Northern Alliance. Russia's MChS have dispatched engineers to help the Northern Alliance to rebuild the road networks between Kabul and its regional power base in the Panjshir Valley.

Reopening the strategic Salang Tunnel has been a major object of Russian attention. Built in 1964 by Soviet engineers, the 3km (2 miles) tunnel has been closed since its destruction in 1998 by Northern Alliance forces led by Ahmadshah Massoud. The all-weather route is of vital strategic importance to the Northern Alliance providing the shortest and safest route from northern to central Afghanistan. In December Russian military sappers were transferred from Kosovo to Afghanistan to start defusing nearly 5,000 explosives located in the Salang Tunnel as well as to clear minefields near Kabul. By the end of 2001, Russian sappers had cleared 200 metres of debris at the southern end of the tunnel. Russia's emergency situations minister, Sergei Shoigu, announced that Russian specialists would have the tunnel cleared and open to traffic by the end of February 2002. The Pakistani media noted that Russian assistance had enabled General Fahim to start transferring weapons stocks from arms depots in Kabul to Northern Alliances bases in the Panjshir Valley.

As a new interim government assumes power in Afghanistan it has become increasingly evident that Russia has emerged as the real winner in the post-Taliban struggle for influence in Afghanistan. Moscow's two biggest supporters in the interim government are Defence Minister General Fahim and Foreign Minister Abdullah. Through Fahim and Abdullah, Moscow has two important allies to safeguard Russian interests in Afghanistan. This will be extremely beneficial to Moscow as the Northern Alliance continues to question the presence of foreign peacekeepers in Afghanistan and as Moscow seeks to build stability in Central Asia. As the deputy minister for emergency situations, Yuri Brazhnikov, has noted on BBC News Online on 1 December 2001, that Russia's humanitarian relief operation in Afghanistan "is a long-term strategy for Russia" aimed at "building peace in the region and security on the southern border of Russia."

· President Putin's canny alliances and deployments in Afghanistan have given Russia considerable leverage in the new interim government...

· ...which may go some way to achieving stability on Russia's southern borders with the Central Asian republics.

· Furthermore, Putin may now have greater influence over the future of any pipelines running through the region...

· ...which is also one of the USA's key objectives in the region.

· As such, Russia seems to have outmanoeuvred the USA in this strategically vital part of the world

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Arms for Chechens and Taliban
Belarus, Ukraine and the separatist Trans-Dniester region of Moldova have all shipped arms to Chechen rebels and the Taliban in recent years despite their protestations of support for Russia's continuing campaign with separatists and Islamic fundamentalists. A JID regional specialist has compiled this report.

Belarus, a country with a population of just ten million, has become one of the world's top ten arms exporters. Like Ukraine, Belarus inherited a large stockpile of Soviet weapons, much of which has ended up abroad. For example, the Minsk authorities inherited 1,700 Soviet-era T-72 tanks (Poland, a country, with four times the population, has only 900). Belarus is one of the most secretive and irresponsible arms exporters, according to US and Israeli intelligence sources.

Recent information from Minsk has revealed the existence of a 'death squad' composed of former Almaz anti-terrorist personnel. The unit was initially created to liquidate members of organised crime gangs but has since been alleged to have shifted its sphere of operations to include President Alyaksandr Lukashenka's domestic political opponents. Members of Almaz, including its former commander, Valery Ihnatovich, are currently on trial behind closed doors in Minsk.

What was not revealed until now is that members of Almaz have also fought as mercenaries on the Chechen side in the conflict in the war between that breakaway republic and Moscow. In addition, Belarus - its close political relations with Russia nothwithstanding - secretly supplied arms to Chechen rebels via Turkey and Georgia and these Belarussian mercenaries were used as intermediaries for the delivery of these consignments. The arms supplies are alleged to have been co-ordinated by the then head of the Belarussian Security Council, Viktar Sheyman, who is currently serving as Belarus' prosecutor-general.

According to both US and Israeli intelligence sources, Belarus has also turned itself into the largest supplier of lethal military equipment to the Islamic world. In the first half of 2001 Belarus exported US$500 million worth of arms to Arab, Palestinian and Albanian Muslim extremists. Many of these exports are routinely 'diverted' from officially sanctioned destination countries to militant Islamic groups and rogue regimes, including some which are subject to UN arms embargoes.

Military assistance to Iraq

Some weapons, including T-55 tanks and Mi-24 Hind helicopter gunships, have ended up in Algeria, Sudan and Tajikistan. Belarus has also assisted Iraq in re-building and modernising Iraq's air defence systems with SA-3 anti-aircraft technology and the expertise of its specialists.

The separatist Trans-Dniester region has long been regarded as an 'economic black hole' through which all types of contraband moves: from cigarettes, oil and gas to weapons. In 1996 the Moldovans issued eight official customs document seals for use by the region's customs officials. By September 2001 the Moldovans undertook an audit of these seals and found that an additional 348 customs seals had been fabricated. Coincidently, Trans-Dniester President Igor Smirnov's son is the head of the region's State Customs Committee.

A major trans-shipment point for Trans-Dniester's illicitly exported weapons are Ukrainian ports in the Odessa region. The Trans-Dniester groups have their own people in Illichevsk and Odessa who fabricate documents for goods shipped via Ukrainian ports allegedly coming from Moldova.

So far, the Ukrainian side has refused to agree to Moldovan requests for joint customs posts preferring to maintain Ukrainian border control with the Trans-Dniester that allows an uncontrolled flow of this contraband. The Moldovans have accused Ukraine of encouraging smuggling by accepting Trans-Dniester exports without accompanying documents bearing the recently changed Moldovan customs stamp. In December 2001 Ukrainian President Leonard Kuchma again reiterated his refusal to allow the deployment of Moldovan customs officers on the Ukrainian-Trans-Dniester border.

Most of the smuggled goods are weapons, the production of which the Trans-Dniester economy is largely based. In the Soviet era the region's military-industrial complex only produced military components for the supply of factories in other Soviet republics. However, the country now has closed production cycles for small arms, a full range of different types of mortars, 43 Grad multiple missile-launchers and grenade-launchers.

Tanks for the Taliban

Fresh confirmation of these smuggling routes has now come from Russian sources who claim that arms for Chechen rebels and the former Taliban regime were, until recently, shipped via Ukraine. In 1996 alone, 200 tanks, 200 armoured personnel carriers and light planes are reported to have been exported to Afghanistan from Ukraine. This is the same year that Ukraine signed a large contract for the export of tanks to the Taliban's key ally, Pakistan. In 1998, Taliban representatives visited Odessa and undertook negotiations on contracts for the repair of military aircraft, despite a UN trade and arms embargo being in force.

The main intermediaries for these shipments are Chechen 'refugees' and organised crime groups operating from bases in Ukraine. As in the Trans-Dniester case, these shipments are made from the port at Odessa.

In the regions of the former Soviet Union, personal ideology and geopolitical alliances are not permitted to get in the way of profitable business transactions, which are controlled by organised criminal gangs, as well as Chechen and Trans-Dniester separatist groups and corrupt Ukrainian officials. A leading Ukrainian oligarch who is barred from visiting the USA, Vadym Rabinovych, is alleged to have links to Leonid Minin, who was arrested in Italy in August on charges of illegally exporting arms to conflict zones such as Afghanistan and Liberia. Rabinovych also happens to be a close ally of Ukraine's President Kuchma.

С уважением, Venik
От Евгений М.
К Venik (16.01.2002 20:39:46)
Дата 16.01.2002 23:26:32

Re: Джейнс прорвало...

Доброе время суток!

According to one report, the former Spetsnaz unit assault commander Colonel Valerii Vostrotin - who directed the Soviet assassination team that killed Afghanistan's former President Hafizullah Amin during the Soviet invasion in December 1979 - is directing the relief operation in Kabul by the MChS, in which Vostrotin is a deputy minister.

Разве Востротин руководил устранением Амина? По моему, они тут что-то напутали. Если я не ошибаюсь, Востротин был простых пехотным офицером.

Евгений
От Александр Стукалин
К Евгений М. (16.01.2002 23:26:32)
Дата 16.01.2002 23:39:50

Востротин...

>Разве Востротин руководил устранением Амина? По моему, они тут что-то напутали. Если я не ошибаюсь, Востротин был простых пехотным офицером.

Во время штурма дворца Амина Востротин командовал одной из парашютно-десантных рот, приданных от ВДВ штабу операции.
Для руководства устранением Амина Востротин тогда ну никак не выходил ни званием, ни годами (27 лет ему всего было в 79-м).

С уважением.
От Venik
К Александр Стукалин (16.01.2002 23:39:50)
Дата 17.01.2002 01:43:35

Re: Востротин...

Мое почтение!

>Для руководства устранением Амина Востротин тогда ну никак не выходил ни званием, ни годами (27 лет ему всего было в 79-м).

Разумеется, но "directed" это не обязательно "руководил."

С уважением, Venik